Flattening of Cultural Sophistication

I was watching an Marc Andreessen interview where he says (at the 52 minute mark) that the internet provides much easier access to intelligent peoples' opinions by creating a platform for publication without barriers. He calls out several technology bloggers and Nate Silver as prominent examples. The number of smart people in the world that can express themselves and reach a large audience is increasing and there won't be an arbiter (eg, newspaper) blocking them from an audience.

I think this phenomenon will express itself not just in tech analysis or election prediction, but also in broader cultural areas like art, food, and fashion. In aggregate, greater access to more sophisticated cultural voices will raise the average level of sophistication in aesthetic tastes and preferences in ways not previously possible. It used to be, for example, that to be active and up-to-date in the contemporary art world you needed to be in New York City. Publications like Artforum helped provide a platform for critics and galleries (through ads) to broadcast to a wider group, but it was still relegated to major capital cities. Now websites like Contemporary Art Daily (which I used to work for) flatten this access to shows from all over the world. 

Following the technology sector has similarities to following the world of contemporary art: they both involve understanding a certain culture, the existing players, and the current state of an ongoing conversation. Without access to sophisticated voices, the only way to keep on top of it is something like direct industry experience or connections through a personal network.

Recently the art world has seen a huge boom, reflected in both market prices (interest from rich collectors) and museum attendance (interest from the general public). And museums are not getting this interest just from older, conservative works -- they are seeing huge interest (and investing heavily) in contemporary art. The Economist wrote this up in a recent special report.

There's been a meme for a while that the rising prices in contemporary art reflect the irrational exuberance of a bubble about ready to burst. See Felix Soloman's recent article as an example. And it's true that when you compare the size, prices, and amount of money in the contemporary art world today to the art world 10 years ago, it's vastly larger. 

But I think something different is happening. This wider access to cultural information is driving a fundamental expansion of the size of the contemporary art world, and exponentially increasing the size of the market. It looks like a bubble to those looking from the inside (who are used to numbers of a certain size), but it's actually a step change.

For one data point, look at attendance at Art Basel: Miami. After some quick googling, it looks like the 5 year attendance numbers (after a big dip in '07/'08 after the financial crisis) have been:

2009: ~40,000

2010: 46,000

2011: 50,000

2012: 50,000

2013: 75,000

Does this mean we won't see a contraction in interest in contemporary art (or art prices) in the future? No, it'll be a gradual rise with normal dips and retractions, but I feel strongly that the macro trend is up -- something like the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1980 - 2000.

The flattening of cultural sophistication will take years, but I think we are already seeing it play out. There's no reason to think it'll be limited to just contemporary art -- for example, it's widely said we're in a "Golden Age" of television -- but I'm closest to art so I'll keep my speculation  to that area. It's always hard to see a sea-change from the inside, but I think we are in one now and will continue to be over the next 10-20 years.